War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the polls under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".